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查看、追踪并以图表掌握外汇汇率走势。汇丰洞察及环球研究助你紧贴市场最新动向
1.00 GBP =
1.2533 USD
1 USD = 0.7979 GBP
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图表未必显示低位和高位。这是因为图表中数据点代表有规律的间隔,但是期内的低位和高位可能随时出现,而且未必重迭。
- 开始
- 1.2933
- 低
- 1.2487
- 高
- 1.3048
- 更改
- -3.09%
请注意:环球外汇市场一般在周末和环球银行假期闭市,在此期间价格不会更新。
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Published:
FX markets eye US elections
Key Takeaways
- Depending on the outcome of the US elections, the USD could rally or weaken
- While we expect the USD to extend its rally up to the 5 November election day, our conviction level thereafter is low
- The EUR will mostly be driven by USD sentiment, but the GBP may see independent weakness
Select a currency to get our tactical view:
The USD has enjoyed a strong October so far, on the back of retreating expectations for the likely scale of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets and our economists expect a 25bp cut at the Fed's meeting on 6-7 November. But the coming few weeks are likely to be dominated more by politics than monetary policy, with the US elections on 5 November. The outcome remains too close to call. We lean towards USD strength over the near term, in part because the USD typically strengthens in the run-up to elections. In addition, only one of the four possible outcomes, i.e., a Democrat presidency, divided government, representing a status quo, would be USD negative. The other three outcomes, a Republican clean sweep, a Republican presidency, divided government, and a Democrat clean sweep, could see a stronger USD, but with some difference. A disputed or delayed election outcome could be USD bullish.
Explanation of tactical views
Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC
Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY): An up () / down () / sideways () arrow indicates that the first currency quoted in the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.
Glossary of terms
Dovish : Dovish refers to an economic outlook which generally supports low interest rates as a means of encouraging growth within the economy.
Hawkish: Hawkish is typically used to describe monetary policy which favours higher interest rates, and tighter monetary controls to keep inflation in check.
MoM / YoY: Month on month / Year on year.
PMI: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic health of the manufacturing sector (>50 represents expansion vs. the previous month).
IMM data: International Monetary Market (IMM) is a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that deals with the trading of currencies and interest rate futures and options and the IMM data is part of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provides a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open futures positions on the IMM. Speculative positions are a trader’s non-commercial positions (i.e. not for hedging purposes).
G10: G10 refers to the most heavily traded, liquid currencies in the world: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK, and SEK.
Fed / FOMC: Federal Reserve System (US’s Central Bank) / Federal Open Market Committee.
ECB: European Central Bank (Eurozone’s Central Bank).
BoE: Bank of England (UK’s Central Bank).
BoJ : Bank of Japan (Japan’s Central Bank).
BoC: Bank of Canada (Canada’s Central Bank).
RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s Central Bank).
RBNZ: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (New Zealand’s Central Bank).
SNB: Swiss National Bank (Switzerland’s Central Bank).
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Additional disclosures
- This publication is dated as at 21 October 2024.
- All market data included in this publication is dated as at close 18 October 2024, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the publication.
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