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1.00 GBP =
1.2700 USD
1 USD = 0.7874 GBP
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The low and high points may not be visible in the chart. This is because the data points in the chart represent regular intervals but the low and high points for the period could be at any moment in time and these may not overlap.
- Start
- 1.2954
- Low
- 1.2487
- High
- 1.3048
- Change
- -1.96%
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FX TrendsMonthly report to help you stay up to date on FX Markets and key currency pairs
Published:
Time to consolidate; mindful of central bank meetings
Key Takeaways
- The broad USD is likely to consolidate over the near term, as a lot of news is now in the price
- December central bank meetings hold scope for surprises…
- …but in the end may not appear, which is why many G10 currencies may lapse into inertia
Select a currency to get our tactical view:
While we think the case for USD strength through 2025 is robust, the USD may struggle to extend its gains into year-end 2024. There is some uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut at its 17-18 December policy, so markets will eye US data releases, like non-farm payrolls (6 December) and CPI (11 December). Markets are now pricing in a c50% chance of a 25bp cut in December (Bloomberg, 22 November 2024), while our economists expect the Fed to deliver its second cut. However, if the cut happens, the decision is likely to come with some hawkish elements, like signalling a possible policy pause. All this could send mixed signals to the USD, which is why consolidation seems more likely to happen in the coming weeks.
Explanation of tactical views
Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC
Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY): An up () / down () / sideways () arrow indicates that the first currency quoted in the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.
Glossary of terms
Dovish : Dovish refers to an economic outlook which generally supports low interest rates as a means of encouraging growth within the economy.
Hawkish: Hawkish is typically used to describe monetary policy which favours higher interest rates, and tighter monetary controls to keep inflation in check.
MoM / YoY: Month on month / Year on year.
PMI: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic health of the manufacturing sector (>50 represents expansion vs. the previous month).
IMM data: International Monetary Market (IMM) is a division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that deals with the trading of currencies and interest rate futures and options and the IMM data is part of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provides a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open futures positions on the IMM. Speculative positions are a trader’s non-commercial positions (i.e. not for hedging purposes).
G10: G10 refers to the most heavily traded, liquid currencies in the world: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, NOK, and SEK.
Fed / FOMC: Federal Reserve System (US’s Central Bank) / Federal Open Market Committee.
ECB: European Central Bank (Eurozone’s Central Bank).
BoE: Bank of England (UK’s Central Bank).
BoJ : Bank of Japan (Japan’s Central Bank).
BoC: Bank of Canada (Canada’s Central Bank).
RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia’s Central Bank).
RBNZ: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (New Zealand’s Central Bank).
SNB: Swiss National Bank (Switzerland’s Central Bank).
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- This publication is dated as at 25 November 2024.
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